Every two years, the Census Bureau, along with the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, refreshes a study that forecasts job trends over the next ten years. he latest study was published back in September 2020; analyzing the job market in 2019 and making projections through the year 2029.
In this article, we're going to start with a brief explanation of the study's' origin. Then we'll quickly slice and dice the data, identifying the hot job trends over the next decade. This summary data will not only include those sectors of the job market that are growing, but those jobs that are on the decline too.
The latest version of the Occupational Outlook Handbook was released on September 2020. This study is a composite of information gathered from three sources:
We're going to split the results of these studies into two parts. In this article, we're going to run through what might be called "hot jobs." That will include fast growing jobs, calculated as both new jobs created as well as openings. In part two, we'll dive a bit deeper into requirements in terms of both work experience and education.
The discussion of this job growth data is going to be further divided into two categories. In this first category, we'll start by talking about those professions expected to grow rapidly over the next ten years. Then we'll talk about those jobs that are expected to decline, or contract, over time.
|Occupation||Thousands Of Jobs|
|Home health and personal care aides||1,159.5|
|Software developers and software quality assurance analysts and testers||316.0|
|Medical and health services managers||133.2|
|Substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors||79.0|
|Health specialties teachers, postsecondary||52.1|
|Information security analysts||40.9|
The above table tells us how many new jobs will be created from 2019 through 2029. For example, the study is projecting 1,159,500 new jobs for home health and personal care aides.
|Occupation||Thousands of Openings|
|Fast food and counter workers||826.6|
|Home health and personal care aides||568.8|
|Waiters and waitresses||475.7|
|Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand||380.6|
|Customer service representatives||350.2|
|Office clerks, general||317.5|
|Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners||305.6|
|Stockers and order fillers||254.9|
Openings created are different than growth in jobs. Openings created also include information on turnover. For example, we know from the first table of data these studies are forecasting 826,600 new fast food and counter worker jobs. In this second table appears a projection of that includes turnover. For example, each year 568,800 home health and personal care aide jobs are created because someone left their job.
|Occupation||Increase over 10 Years|
|Wind turbine service technicians||60.7%|
|Solar photovoltaic installers||50.5%|
|Occupational therapy assistants||34.6%|
|Home health and personal care aides||33.7%|
|Physical therapist assistants||32.6%|
|Medical and health services managers||31.5%|
|Information security analysts||31.2%|
Another way to look at job growth is the percentage increase in the number of jobs over time. For example, these studies are projecting an increase of 60.7% from 2019 through 2029 in jobs for wind turbine and service technicians.
While it's certainly interesting to know the jobs that will be in high demand over the next decade, it's equally important to understand which jobs are contracting.
|Occupation||Thousands Of Jobs|
|Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive||-227.5|
|Miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators||-177.6|
|Office clerks, general||-155.9|
|Executive secretaries and executive administrative assistants||-121.1|
|Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers||-100.4|
|Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks||-95.4|
|First-line supervisors of retail sales workers||-81.2|
|Cooks, fast food||-71.6|
The above list does not bode well for administrative assistants. Here we see a total loss of 227,500 jobs, in addition to job losses for legal secretaries, and executive secretaries.
|Occupation||Decrease over 10 Years|
|Word processors and typists||-36.4%|
|Parking enforcement workers||-36.2%|
|Nuclear power reactor operators||-35.7%|
|Watch and clock repairers||-32.3%|
|Cutters and trimmers, hand||-29.9%|
|Data entry keyers||-24.6%|
|Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles||-23.2%|
|Switchboard operators, including answering service||-22.5%|
The table above tells us workers in parking enforcement and word procession positions will experience a steep decline in jobs. This information is stated as a percentage of the total workforce; meaning over 35.7% of nuclear power reactor operators are expected to disappear over the next decade.
The patterns in the above tables of information are clear. Over the next ten years, more healthcare practitioners will be needed to help an aging population in the United States. The patterns in the above tables of information are clear. Over the next ten years, more healthcare practitioners will be needed to help an aging population in the United States.
Email and other competitive services continue to take its toll on the post office, with a significant decline in a variety of positions providing postal services over the last several reports. Finally, administrative positions are projected to be in sharp decline over the next ten years as office workers continue to be more self-sufficient and automation replaces this once valuable skillset.
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